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UK DATA: Q3 GDP Second Estimate and Balance of Payments Data Due 07:00GMT

UK DATA
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  • The final estimate of Q3 GDP on a quarterly and annual basis is due, the first estimate came in at 0.1%, a tenth below the BOE's forecast of 0.2% Q/Q growth (following 0.5% growth in Q2).
  • The monthly readings for July, August and September (released alongside the first quarterly estimate) were 0.0%M/M, 0.2%M/M and -0.1%M/M. They were not open to revision alongside the release of October's first estimate (which came in at +0.1%M/M).
  • The BOE has downgraded its forecast for Q4 GDP to flat growth (vs 0.3% forecast in November MPC meeting). Alongside the October monthly print, the PMI data points to a further weakening in GDP with the December flash composite PMI down 2.1 points compared to September PMI (albeit remaining marginally above the 50 level threshold).
  • For the balance of payments, the focus will be on the current account deficit which is forecast at GBP23.0bln in Q3 according to the Bloomberg consensus, following a deficit of GBP28.4bln in Q2 - the largest quarterly deficit since Q1 2022. Analyst estimates range from GBP19.2bln to GBP26.0bln.
  • From the monthly GDP publication on 13 December, absent any revisions net trade recorded a deficit of GBP10.6bln (vs a deficit of GBP15.9bln in Q2).
  • Both the Primary and Secondary Accounts are expected to continue to contribute negatively to the current account. These subcomponents combined point to another current account deficit although an improvement to Q2 where net trade deteriorated to the worse levels seen since Q2 2022.
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  • The final estimate of Q3 GDP on a quarterly and annual basis is due, the first estimate came in at 0.1%, a tenth below the BOE's forecast of 0.2% Q/Q growth (following 0.5% growth in Q2).
  • The monthly readings for July, August and September (released alongside the first quarterly estimate) were 0.0%M/M, 0.2%M/M and -0.1%M/M. They were not open to revision alongside the release of October's first estimate (which came in at +0.1%M/M).
  • The BOE has downgraded its forecast for Q4 GDP to flat growth (vs 0.3% forecast in November MPC meeting). Alongside the October monthly print, the PMI data points to a further weakening in GDP with the December flash composite PMI down 2.1 points compared to September PMI (albeit remaining marginally above the 50 level threshold).
  • For the balance of payments, the focus will be on the current account deficit which is forecast at GBP23.0bln in Q3 according to the Bloomberg consensus, following a deficit of GBP28.4bln in Q2 - the largest quarterly deficit since Q1 2022. Analyst estimates range from GBP19.2bln to GBP26.0bln.
  • From the monthly GDP publication on 13 December, absent any revisions net trade recorded a deficit of GBP10.6bln (vs a deficit of GBP15.9bln in Q2).
  • Both the Primary and Secondary Accounts are expected to continue to contribute negatively to the current account. These subcomponents combined point to another current account deficit although an improvement to Q2 where net trade deteriorated to the worse levels seen since Q2 2022.