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Q4 metrics on bbg credit indices; $HY

CREDIT MACRO
  • $HY headlined relatively healthy metrics - Interest coverage fell from 3.1* to 3* - the most muted fall since 2Q 2022. Only sector that showed significant deterioration in ICR's was energy - falling from 5.1* to 4.2*.
  • Net leverage however did rise from 3.55* to 3.67* while gross leverage fell - slightly confusing given cash still increased (as % of debt from 12.1% to 12.7%). Jump in net leverage seems to have been driven by Auto's (+0.5*), technology (+0.18*) & Electric (+0.3*).
  • No noticeable differences in medians (vs. trimmed means) reported for above.
  • There were some positives for $CCC credit; ICR's (just) holding above 1* (at 1.1*), FCF to total debt rising to positive levels (-0.8 to +0.6) & cash on hand increasing to highest levels (as % of debt) since Q2 2022. ICR's at ~historic lows does little for pro-CCC arguments that point to historic wides.
  • As a aside, Single B's are the best performing in dollar markets YTD (-33bps) - no noticeable change in credit metrics for it in Q4.

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