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Questions On Job Openings and The December Dot Plot

FED
  • Q: Are job openings an important indicator to be studying?
  • A: We've seen AHE and ECI abating a little bit but still at fairly elevated levels. We do see wages moving down... If you look across the rest of the labor market, you still see very high payroll job creation. And, you know, quits are still at an elevated level, so by many indicators the job market is still very strong.
  • Q: Is the December Dot Plot median still the best guide post?
  • A: At the December meeting we all wrote down our best estimates of what we thought the ultimate level would be. Obviously that was back in December and the median was between 5 - 5.25%. At the March meeting we will update those assessments. We did not update them today. We did, however, continue to say that we believe ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate to obtain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation back down to 2%. We think we covered a lot of ground and financial conditions have certainly tightened. I would say we still think there is work to do there.
  • We will be looking at the incoming data between the March meeting and May meeting. I don't feel a lot of certainty about where that will be. It could be higher than where we are running down right now. If we come to the need to move rates up beyond what we said in December, we would certainly do that.
  • At the same time the data comes in the other direction, we will make data-dependent decisions that coming meeting.
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