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Rabobank On Banxico Decision/Rate Forecasts

MEXICO
  • Rabobank expect Banxico to raise rates 75bp to 7.75% at the June meeting. They also expect a follow-up hike of 75bp at the August 11th meeting and two subsequent 50bp hikes, before a final 25bp move in December that ends the tightening cycle at 9.75%. This marks a faster pace and higher terminal rate than they had previously expected.
  • The forecast changes come as a result of the Fed stepping up its pace of tightening and
  • Rabobank’s expectation of a 4% Fed funds rate by year-end, more hawkish rhetoric from Banxico, and a continued increase in core inflation.
  • Despite the shift in Banxico forecasts, Rabo still maintain their projected path for USD/MXN, with the pair likely to primarily trade a 20-21 range over the coming months.
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