Rangebound Crude Waiting for OPEC+ Decision

Crude is trading within yesterday’s trading range waiting for further indications for the outcome of the delayed OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. Reports suggest the group remains divided over whether to cut output further with many reluctant to do so and the quotas for Nigeria and Angola not yet agreed. CME Group estimates a 67.8% probability that there will be no change in the output level and 24.8% that it will be increased, according to Dow Jones.

• Brent JAN 24 up 0.1% at 80.07$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 0.2% at 75.02$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 down -0.3% at 814.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -5.1$/bbl
• Oil loadings from the Black Sea are temporarily halted due to a storm alert which is expected to last most of the week according to the pipeline operator Transneft PJSC.
• The prompt Brent spread has edged back up after softening yesterday almost back to parity ahead of the Jan24 futures contract expiry on Nov 30. The WTI spread is still in contango reflecting concern for an oversupplied market despite output cuts by the OPEC+ due to weak demand growth and better than expected global supplies from non-OPEC and sanctioned countries such as US and Iran.
• The near term options market is holding the bearish skew and crude money manager net longs have fallen to the lowest since June.
  • Brent JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.1$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.05$/bbl at 1.77$/bbl
• Diesel cracks are holding steady below the highs from earlier this year but still at historically robust levels while gasoline cracks have this week resumed the slow recovery higher.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 15.86$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 40.8$/bbl