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TURKISH LIRA: Rate pressed higher still Tuesday, adding to yesterday's gains to
top out at 6.1982, the highest level since October last year. The formation of a
golden cross (50-dma > 200-dma) has helped bulls further this week with
Erdogan's sabre-rattling this morning: "Turkey is facing economic sabotage",
"exchange rate - interest - inflation are the triangle of evil" also working
against the TRY.
-Political rancour has run higher this week as the Turkish election watchdog has
conceded that the Istanbul mayoral race must be re-run after Erdogan protested
his party's loss. New elections in the city will be held on June 23rd.
-USD/TRY's run higher today stopped just short of the 6.1992 level, marking the
50% retracement of the 7.2362 - 5.1621 move, with further resistance seen at
-Short-end implied vols have run higher, with 1m hitting the best levels since
end-April but are yet to recover back to recent cycle highs of 39.8 points.
USD/TRY hedging activity has been frenetic so far Tuesday, although USD/TRY puts
have been in demand, running somewhat counter to the price action in spot today.