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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed vs. levels seen in the wake of the firmer than expected Q4 CPI data (which pointed to increasing domestic inflationary pressure), although there has been plenty of two-way trade in that time, with spill over from market pricing surrounding the major global central banks in the driving seat in that window. A 25bp step at today’s meeting is fully priced, alongside a terminal cash rate of ~3.75%.
| OIS Strip Pre-RBA (%) | OIS Strip Post-Q4 CPI (%) | |
| Feb-23 | 3.32% | 3.30% |
| Mar-23 | 3.49% | 3.46% |
| Apr-23 | 3.57% | 3.55% |
| May-23 | 3.67% | 3.64% |
| Jun-23 | 3.72% | 3.68% |
| Jul-23 | 3.74% | 3.74% |
| Aug-23 | 3.74% | 3.77% |
| Sep-23 | 3.72% | 3.76% |
| Oct-23 | 3.72% | 3.75% |
| Nov-23 | 3.70% | 3.71% |
| Dec-23 | 3.66% | 3.68% |
| Feb-24 | 3.62% | 3.62% |
Fig. 1: The Recent Evolution Of RBA-Dated OIS Pricing
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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