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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat across meetings out to Mar’24 and 1-3bps firmer beyond ahead of this week’s policy meetings from the BOJ, FOMC and BOE. The RBA Policy Decision is next Tuesday.
- The market currently assigns a 71% probability to a 25bp rate hike next Tuesday. This percentage had risen to 80% following the release of higher-than-expected Q3 and September CPI data last week. However, it saw a reduction in the days that followed after RBA Governor Bullock delivered non-committal remarks during her appearance before the Senate Economics Committee.
- Expectations for the terminal rate are slightly higher at 4.53%, indicating an increase of 46bps by August 2024. This represents the highest level reached since mid-July.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS Terminal Rate Expectations Versus Cash Rate
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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