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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Today the RBA convenes and once again, the decision appears to be a contentious one, with economists holding divergent views. Our analysis suggests that the RBA is likely to proceed cautiously this time due to the recent moderation in data. It is expected that they will choose to closely monitor and assess another month's worth of data, including tomorrow's Q1 national accounts report. However, it should be noted that this cautious approach does not indicate the end of the hiking cycle. See MNI RBA Preview here.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bp softer across meetings with early ’24 leading. The market currently attaches a 38% chance of a 25bp hike at today’s meeting.
- The expected terminal rate sits at 4.15%, just shy of yesterday’s intraday high of 4.20%. Nonetheless, the current level is the highest level since March 3.
- The market has priced only 2bp of easing by year-end versus 26bp the day after the RBA surprised the market with a 25bp hike at the May meeting.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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