RBA’s Bullock & Monthly CPI Week’s Highlights

This week sees October retail sales and CPI print, which are important for the December RBA meeting, as well as the first components that feed into Q3 GDP due on December 6. Also, RBA Governor Bullock participates in a panel at the HKMA-BIS conference on Tuesday.

• October retail sales are out on Tuesday and are forecast to show a slight increase of 0.1% m/m after September’s strong 0.9%. But projections are in a broad range from -0.9% to +0.6%. Local banks are also divided with ANZ at +0.5% and Westpac +0.2% but NAB -0.4% and CBA -0.6%.
• On Wednesday monthly CPI for October is released and expected to ease to 5.2% from 5.6%, with the big 4 banks around consensus. Forecasts on Bloomberg are between 4.9% and 5.5%. Volatile fuel, fresh food and holiday components likely moderated in October but there is more uncertainty around underlying measures, as most services are not measured in the first month of the quarter and this has been a particular area of stickiness.
• Q3 construction is also on Wednesday and expected to rise 0.3% q/q to be in line with Q2. Capex follows on Thursday and another robust increase is projected at +1% q/q after 2.8%. October building approvals are also on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus is at +1.4% m/m after -4.6%, but the multi-dwelling component makes the series volatile.
• CoreLogic home prices for November print on Friday and with demand robust given strong population growth and the low stock of housing, they are likely to post another solid monthly rise resulting in a further deterioration in affordability.
• October RBA private credit is on Thursday and the final November Judo Bank manufacturing PMI on Friday.