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RBC Maintains Bearish Refinery Outlook: OPIS

OIL

RBC Capital Markets told clients on Jan. 30 that it holds a bearish outlook on refinery margins in the medium term because of an expected ramp up in production from new refineries in Mexico and Nigeria, according to OPIS.

  • However, RBC don’t expect to see increased production from either refinery for several additional quarters or even years.
  • RBC also acknowledged that there are ambiguous timelines for the start of operations at both Nigeria’s 650k b/d Dangote and Mexico’s 340k b/d Dos Bocas.
  • RBC expects Dos Bocas to displace around 15-20% of US gasoline exports in favour of home-grown production.
  • RBC also said that its still too early to determine if OPEC+ has compiled with its promised Q1 cuts.
  • The bank also offered a mixed view for China’s demand, with “no evidence yet that China is firing on all cylinders”.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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