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RBC Put More Weight On Payrolls Data Than Household Survey

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • RBC look for nonfarm payrolls growth of 237k in June, easily above the median consensus of 190k.
  • “Health care and social assistance should continue to provide about one-third of the gain, and we expect another third will come from government and leisure & hospitality, which has already rebounded from April’s lull.”
  • “June typically marks peak school graduation season, so we do think seasonal noise will come into play for both payrolls (strong summer hiring would help boost payrolls) and the unemployment rate (recent grads who start looking for work would cause the u-rate to rise).”
  • They stand out with their view that the unemployment rate will tick up to 4.1%.
  • However, “We weight the administrative-based data (i.e., payrolls) over the household data for several reasons.” “Divergence suggests that undocumented workers are not showing up in the household survey, likely resulting in an overstated unemployment rate” whilst “the insured unemployment rate (per the jobless claim data submitted by unemployed workers to their respective state UI offices) has held steady at 1.2% since March 2023, in contrast to the rise in the U-3 measure (per the household survey).”
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