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Re-Basing & Energy Subsidies Add Uncertainty to German CPI Print (2/3)

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

Uncertainty 1 - New base year: As of January 2023, Destatis will use new weights to calculate CPI. It's reweighted based on 2022 spending patterns, likely to see energy more heavily weighted. Initial evidence from Spain’s reweighting: food, clothing less heavily weighted.

  • A more heavily weighted energy component expected due to the 2020-rebasing will ensure that whichever way the effect swings, the repercussions will be greater for the headline inflation print.
  • If Germany follows Spain in reducing weights for food and clothing, the former will see headline CPI soften whilst the effect of clothing will be based on whether retailers attempted to salvage profit margins or move merchandise in sales.
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