Re-run of our Bank of Canada POV: Very.......>

CANADA: Re-run of our Bank of Canada POV:

Very little chance of a go at the Dec 5 BoC policy annc (no presser), currently

0% vs. 5%-10% a week ago. Some desks have "hawkish hold" expectations for final

meet of 2018. Emphasis will be on BoC Gov Stephen Poloz Thursday for more

guidance.

-First BoC meet of 2019 on January 9, however, and probability of 25bp hike

climbs to 61%-65% (OIS) vs. 76% last week. Drop in oil prices and it's impact on

growth widely cited. Other salient factors remain US Trade, OPEC (Saudi/Russia

agreement to manage prices). Expect rolling move to March 6 ... then April

24...etc until risk metrics subside.

-BNY Mellon FX strategist Neil Mellor notes that CAD "ylds appear to be

discounting a rather more downbeat outlook." CAD GDP -0.1% in Sep, "first

monthly decline in eight months" Mellor adds, "business investment has fallen

and consumer spending growth halved, and if the economy is indeed slowing, then

the chances of inflation going into retreat - as the BOC has consistently

predicted - are only going to grow."