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Real Personal Spending Declines In Three Of Last Four Months

US DATA
  • Real personal spending disappointed in May, at just 0.0% M/M (cons 0.1) after a downward revised 0.2% (initial 0.5).
  • Unrounded it was -0.03%, with real consumption contracting in three of the last four months in a very subdued run for Q2 coming after Q1 data was revised higher from an already strong base yesterday.
  • The 3M/3M run rate hit 2.2% annualized in May (a flat June would see it at 0.8% annualized) after the 4.2% in Q1.
  • On the nominal side, personal income increased 0.4% M/M (cons 0.3) in May with the beat offset by an April downward revision (0.3 from 0.4) but with further small upward revisions further back in Jan-Mar.
  • Personal spending meanwhile was more clearly softer than expected, increasing 0.1% M/M (cons 0.2) after a downward revised 0.6% (initial 0.8).
  • The combination helped push the household savings ratio back up 0.3pps to 4.6%. It's off the July low of 2.7% for its highest since Jan’22, but still at a level that slowly chips away at ‘excess savings’ accumulated through the pandemic.

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