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Refinery Run Cuts Possible on Falling Gasoline Margins

GASOLINE

Weak gasoline markets have already led to run cuts in Asia with refiners elsewhere likely to follow in the coming weeks amid ample supplies, according to Reuters.

  • U.S. refiners have ramped up sharply, but demand has disappointed so far this summer amid increasing air travel and more fuel efficient and electric vehicles.
  • U.S. gasoline stockpiles are the highest seasonally since 2021, rising by 5.7mbbls since the start of April, while US refinery utilisation is up at 95% despite a slight dip last week.
  • EIA showed U.S. gasoline demand was 9.04mbpd in the first week of June, 1.7% below last year and seasonally the lowest since 2021. U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a drop of 1.5% for the week ending June 15 and was 1.1% below the four week average, according to GasBuddy. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.79mbpd
  • The U.S. gasoline crack spread fell to the lowest since February at $21.67/bbl on June 13, according to Bloomberg data.
  • Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical intends to cut run rates at its crude distillation units by 40kbpd to 440kbpd in June, the company said earlier this month.
  • New and expanded plants are increasing fuel supplies from the Middle East, India and China but a slower than expected ramp up in gasoline supplies from Dos Bocas and Dangote could provide some support.
    • RBOB JUL 24 up 1% at 2.42$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.1$/bbl at 14.33$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.6$/bbl

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Weak gasoline markets have already led to run cuts in Asia with refiners elsewhere likely to follow in the coming weeks amid ample supplies, according to Reuters.

  • U.S. refiners have ramped up sharply, but demand has disappointed so far this summer amid increasing air travel and more fuel efficient and electric vehicles.
  • U.S. gasoline stockpiles are the highest seasonally since 2021, rising by 5.7mbbls since the start of April, while US refinery utilisation is up at 95% despite a slight dip last week.
  • EIA showed U.S. gasoline demand was 9.04mbpd in the first week of June, 1.7% below last year and seasonally the lowest since 2021. U.S. retail gasoline demand saw a drop of 1.5% for the week ending June 15 and was 1.1% below the four week average, according to GasBuddy. GasBuddy models U.S. gasoline demand at 8.79mbpd
  • The U.S. gasoline crack spread fell to the lowest since February at $21.67/bbl on June 13, according to Bloomberg data.
  • Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical intends to cut run rates at its crude distillation units by 40kbpd to 440kbpd in June, the company said earlier this month.
  • New and expanded plants are increasing fuel supplies from the Middle East, India and China but a slower than expected ramp up in gasoline supplies from Dos Bocas and Dangote could provide some support.
    • RBOB JUL 24 up 1% at 2.42$/gal
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.1$/bbl at 14.33$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 22.6$/bbl

Keep reading...Show less