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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Refunding: Feb-Apr Coupons Unchanged, First Upping In Aug or Nov

US TSYS/SUPPLY
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

There is no expectation of any changes to nominal coupon sizes in the upcoming Feb-Apr quarter vs the previous quarter. Issuance is set to resume next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $42B in 10Y Note, and $25B in 30Y Bond. 

  • February is set to see $324B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $10B in 30Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $362B – slightly below the Jan total of $365B. See table below.
  • When the upsizings are announced, with most expectations surrounding the August 2025 or - more prevalently - November 2025 refunding rounds, and perhaps not until 2026, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters. (Sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • Expectations for the first upsizings are as follows:
    • BNP Paribas: By August
    • CIBC: November
    • Deutsche: November
    • Goldman Sachs: November
    • JPMorgan: November
    • TD Securities: August (November at the latest).
    • Wells Fargo: November
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There is no expectation of any changes to nominal coupon sizes in the upcoming Feb-Apr quarter vs the previous quarter. Issuance is set to resume next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $42B in 10Y Note, and $25B in 30Y Bond. 

  • February is set to see $324B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $10B in 30Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $362B – slightly below the Jan total of $365B. See table below.
  • When the upsizings are announced, with most expectations surrounding the August 2025 or - more prevalently - November 2025 refunding rounds, and perhaps not until 2026, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters. (Sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • Expectations for the first upsizings are as follows:
    • BNP Paribas: By August
    • CIBC: November
    • Deutsche: November
    • Goldman Sachs: November
    • JPMorgan: November
    • TD Securities: August (November at the latest).
    • Wells Fargo: November
image