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Regional Fed PCE Moderation Continued In July

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed trimmed mean slowed from 2.6% to 2.4% M/M annualized in July, its softest since Mar’21. Recall that the earlier PCE data showed core PCE at 0.22% M/M after an upward revised 0.21% M/M but with a strong acceleration in core services non-housing from 0.31% to 0.46% M/M.
  • The trimmed mean Y/Y dipped from 4.2% to 4.1% after a larger prior moderation from high of 4.8% in April, although the six-month annualized measure saw a sharper decline in the latest month from 4.1% to 3.5% annualized.
  • The Cleveland Fed median PCE meanwhile moderated from 4.9% to 4.8% Y/Y, but like with the Dallas Fed trimmed mean has also recently seen a sharper moderation with it now more than 1pp below its March high of 5.9% Y/Y.

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