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Remains The Outperformer Following Hawkish Norges Bank

NOK

NOK is on track to post the largest one-day gain vs. SEK in over a year following the hawkish Norges Bank.

  • NOK remains the G10 outperformer after the Norges Bank's 25bps hike in rates this morning. NOKSEK sits 1.9% higher on the day - the sharpest one-day gain this year - and has breached the top-end of the bear trend channel that had dictated price action since Oct 5. The cross trades at 0.9751 at typing with the 100-day EMA at 0.9813 the first resistance.
  • USDNOK has pushed through the 100- and 200-day EMAs today and currently trades at the lowest level since August, 3% lower on the day.
  • A reminder that today's decision was a close call, though markets had leant towards expecting a hold in rates following dovish domestic data (Q4 Regional Network Survey and November CPI) and developments in global rate paths.
  • The decision prompted some analysts to push back calls on the first cut in rates, further supporting the NOK.
  • Our full review of today's Norges Bank decision will be released tomorrow.
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