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Renewed Russia-Ukraine Risks See Haven Rally On The Day

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull steepened on the day although this masks sizeable intraday swings, with an abrupt haven rally yesterday and overnight on higher Russia-Ukraine tensions, including shelling in the Donbas, before more mixed headlines have seen a partial retracing.
  • 2YY -3.0bps at 1.491%, 5YY -4.2bps at 1.877%, 10YY -3.5bps at 2.003% and 30YY -2.3bps at 2.323%.
  • TYH2 sits up 10 ticks on the day at 126-04 on strong volumes, although continues to not trouble technicals with resistance at 127-01 (Feb 7 high) and support at the bear trigger of 125-17+ (Feb 10).
  • Fedspeak: 2022 voters today with Bullard at 1100ET and Mester at 1700ET.
  • Data: Jobless claims, building permits/housing starts, Philly Fed and existing homes.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 10Y-22.5Y, appr $1.625B steady (1030ET)
  • Issuance: US Tsy $50B 4W, $40B 8W bill auctions (1130ET), US Tsy $9B 30Y TIPS auction (1300ET)

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