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Free AccessREPEAT: MNI: Analyst See Japan Q4 GDP Revised Up on Capex
--Revised Q4 GDP Seen +0.8% Annualized Vs Prelim +0.5%
TOKYO (MNI) - Japanese fourth-quarter gross domestic product will be
revised up slightly from the initial estimate as business investment and public
works spending appear to be firmer than initially reported, economists forecast
Thursday.
Analysts' forecasts for the revision are based on the latest government
quarterly business survey and other indicators, but economists warn seasonal
adjustments made to past figures could also affect the calculation.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP data for
the October-December quarter at 0850 JST on Thursday, March 8 (2350 GMT
Wednesday, March 7).
The median forecast by eight economists for revised Q4 GDP is +0.2% on
quarter, or an annualized +0.8%, up from the preliminary estimate of +0.1% q/q,
or an annualized +0.5%. The forecasts ranged from +0.1% to +0.3% q/q, or +0.6%
to +1.2% at an annualized pace.
--CAPEX UPWARD REVISION
Capital investment is forecast by economists to be revised up to +1.2% on
quarter from the initial reading of +0.7%, with forecasts in a range of +0.4% to
+1.5%, following the Ministry of Finance's release Thursday of its quarterly
survey of major companies.
Economists expect private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of the
GDP, to be unchanged from the preliminary estimate that showed a 0.5% rise on
quarter, which pushed down the Q3 GDP figure by 0.3 percentage point in the
preliminary reading. NLI Research chief economist Taro Saito is calling for a
slight upward revision to +0.6% q/q, citing the government's monthly survey on
service industries, which showed a 1.5% year-on-year rise in sales in Q4, up
from +1.4% in Q3.
--INVENTORIES SEEN UNREVISED
The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic output
is forecast to be -0.1 percentage point, unrevised from the preliminary report.
Economists expect no change to the initial estimate that net exports of
goods and services -- exports minus imports -- made a negative 0.1 percentage
point contribution to total domestic output. It was the first negative
contribution in two quarters after pushing up Q3 GDP growth by 0.5 percentage
point.
--PUBLIC INVESTMENT FIRMER
Economists expect public investment to be revised up to a drop of 0.2% on
quarter in Q4 from a preliminary 0.5% fall. The forecasts ranged from -1.5% to
+0.3% q/q.
The Ministry of Finance survey showed that combined capital investment by
non-financial Japanese companies rose 4.3% on year in the October-December
quarter, the fifth straight quarter of increase after rising 4.2% in
July-September.
On quarter, combined capital outlays (excluding software) posted the second
straight quarter-on-quarter rise, up 3.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q4,
after rising 2.1% in Q3.
The MOF's demand-side survey is the key to calculating revisions to
preliminary GDP. The capex figure in the preliminary GDP calculation is based
solely on supply side data.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.