REPEAT: MNI: ANALYSTS: Japan Q1 GDP Seen Flat on Weak Spending

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's gross domestic product for the January-March quarter

is expected by economists to be flat both on quarter and at an annualized pace,

as solid capital investment is offset by weak private consumption amid bad

winter weather.

     The flat median forecast for the Q1 GDP is based on projections by nine

economists, which ranged from -0.2% to +0.1% on quarter, or an annualized -0.9%

to +0.5%.

     The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the first quarter

of 2018 at 0850 JST on Wednesday, May 16 (2350 GMT on May 15).

     Four out of the nine economists projected the GDP contracted for the first

time since October-December 2015, when it shrank 0.3% on quarter, or 1.1% on an

annualized basis, hit by sluggish consumer spending amid a slow wage recovery

and uncertain growth prospects at the time.

     In the final quarter of 2017, the GDP grew 0.4% on quarter, or an

annualized +1.6%, as a rebound in consumer spending and continued solid capital

investment offset weak net exports and public works spending.

     Capex remained strong in the first quarter while the severe winter weather

and high fresh food and fuel prices hurt consumption, economists forecast.

Public works spending is projected to be firmer after a slip in Q4.

     Economists expect capital investment to have risen 0.5% on quarter for the

sixth straight q/q rise after +1.0% in Q4, with their forecasts ranging from

-0.1% to +1.0%.

     Meanwhile, the median forecast for private consumption, which accounts for

about 60% of the GDP, is unchanged on quarter in Q1 (forecasts ranged from -0.2%

to +0.2%) after rising 0.5% in Q4.

     The BOJ's supply-side Consumption Activity Index fell a real 0.1% on a

seasonally adjusted basis in February after rising 0.4% in January.

     The Cabinet Office's Private Consumption Integrated Estimates index, which

is based on both supply- and demand-side data, rebounded 0.5% on the month in

February after -0.2% in January and -1.0% in December.

     The economists expect net exports of goods and services -- exports minus

imports -- had zero contribution to the Q1 GDP (forecasts ranged from -0.1 to

+0.1 percentage point) after having a flat to slightly negative impact (-0.0

percentage point) in Q4.

     The real export index for the first quarter calculated by the BOJ based on

the Ministry of Finance's trade statistics rose 0.5% on quarter in the first

quarter, the fourth consecutive q/q rise but slowing from +1.7% in the fourth

quarter.

     The average economist forecast for Q1 GDP growth is an annualized 0.56%

rise, revised down from +0.71% in the previous survey, according to the latest

monthly ESP Forecast Survey of 40 economists by the Japan Center for Economic

Research conducted from March 27 to April 3.

     Looking ahead, economists expect the economy to return to a moderate

recovery trend in April-June, backed by solid private consumption and capital

investment.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com