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REPEAT:MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims +11K In May 19 Wk>

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:30 GMT May 24/08:30 EST May 24
--Initial Claims Four-Wk Average +6,250 To 219,750
By Kevin Kastner
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 
rose by 11,000 to 234,000 in the May 19 week, well above the 220,000 
level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, while the four-week moving 
average posted its first gain in five weeks, data released by the Labor 
Department Thursday showed. 
     Even with the gains in the previous two weeks, claims have only 
returned to the trim levels seen through much of the last year and 
suggest that the decades-low levels seen of the last month were 
unstainable. 
--CLAIMS FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE REBOUND AFTER 48-YEAR LOW 
     The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be 
a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 6,250 to 
219,750 in the May 19 week after four straight declines, but was still 
near the 48-year low posted in the previous week. 
     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 
there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 
average will rise by an additional 5,750 as the 211,000 level in the 
April 28 week rolls out of the calculation, but the average will still 
be below its year ago level. 
     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 0.8%, or 
1,560, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 11,654 
(6.0%) to 206,868, likely payback from low levels seen over the last 
month. The current week's level was slightly below the 210,544 level in 
the comparable week a year ago. 
     The only state where claims was estimated was Maine, as Colorado 
was able to produce actual data. The claims-taking procedures in the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.   
--CONTINUING CLAIMS MOVE UP 
     The level of continuing claims rose by 29,000 to 1.741 million in 
the May 12 employment survey week, down 93,000 from the level in the 
1.834 million level in the April 14 employment survey week, a very 
strong positive sign for May payrolls. 
     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 7,800 to 
1.603 million, well below the 1.784 million level seen in the comparable 
week last year. 
     The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable 
measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell 
by 23,250 to 1.752 million, hitting its lowest point since the December 
15, 1973 week. 
     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 
the May 12 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier and an 
indication of how low the level of insured unemployment stands. 
     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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