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Free AccessREPEAT:MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US June CPI +0.1%, Core +0.2%>
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:30 GMT Jul 12
--Overall CPI Rises To +2.9% Y/Y, Core Up To +2.3% Y/Y
--Initial Claims Plunge By 18k To 214,000, Well Below 226,000 Expected
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Harrison Clarke
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The June CPI data suggested that consumer
inflation rise only modestly, with the gains in the headline and core
measures softer than expected before rounding, but the year/year rates
still ticked up, data released Thursday morning showed.
--CPI BELOW EXPECTATIONS
Overall CPI posted a 0.1% increase, below both analyst and market
expectations for a 0.2% gain, while the core CPI gain at 0.2% maintained
the trend of accurate estimates. As a result, the data should generate
little reaction, though they do indicate that consumer price inflation
remains on an upward trend.
Unrounded, the month/month rise for overall CPI was +0.129%, while
the unrounded increase for core CPI was +0.162%, both on the low side of
the 0.2% expectations.
--YEAR/YEAR PRICES MOVE HIGHER
Overall, the data point to upward progress in consumer inflation,
as the year/year rates strengthened further.
The year/year rate for overall CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.8% in May,
hitting the highest rate since February 2012, while the year/year rate
for core CPI rose to 2.3% from 2.2%, the strongest gain since January
2017.
--RENTS, MEDICAL, VEHICLES PRICES HIGHER
The large owners' equivalent rents category rose 0.3%, while
medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices rose 0.4% and used
vehicles prices rose 0.7% to break the string of recent declines.
There was some offset by declines in lodging away from home, which
plunged 3.7%, and by apparel prices, which fell 0.9%.
Energy prices fell by 0.3% for June after a 0.9% increase in May,
with gasoline prices up 0.5%, but electricity prices down 1.4% and gas
utilities prices down 1.7%. Energy prices were up 1.0% unadjusted, less
than seasonal adjustment factors look for at the start of the summer
when consumers are turning on their air conditioners and fueling their
vehicles. CPI excluding only energy was up 0.2%.
Food prices were up 0.2% in June, with food at home prices and
food away from home prices both up 0.2%.
--INITIAL CLAIMS FALL SHARPLY
Also released on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 18,000
to 214,000 in the July 7 week, compared with expectations for a 5,000
decline to 226,000 from the originally reported 231,000 level in the
previous week. That week's level was revised up slightly to 232,000.
The claims data are viewed cautiously in early-July due to the
typical time of auto plant shutdowns for retooling. Unadjusted claims
rose by 32,948, but that was far short of the 54,180 rise seasonal
factors expected. The current week's level was down from 284,329 in the
same week a year earlier.
The four-week moving average fell by 1,750 to 223,000 in the July 7
week, and would fall further next week as the 218,000 level in the June
16 week rolls out of the equation. However, volatility typical in
early-July suggests a rebound in the headline figure next week.
Continuing claims fell by 3,000 to 1.739 million in the June 30
week, but that small dip was not enough to prevent the four-week average
from rising by 9,500 after 11 straight declines. Still, the average at
1.729 million, is very close to the decade-low level set in the June 23
week.
Overall, the claims data suggest labor markets remain tight, even
accounting for the early-July noise and the possibility of a rebound in
the previous week.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.