REPEAT:MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US June CPI +0.1%, Core +0.2%>

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:30 GMT Jul 12

--Overall CPI Rises To +2.9% Y/Y, Core Up To +2.3% Y/Y

--Initial Claims Plunge By 18k To 214,000, Well Below 226,000 Expected

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The June CPI data suggested that consumer 

inflation rise only modestly, with the gains in the headline and core 

measures softer than expected before rounding, but the year/year rates 

still ticked up, data released Thursday morning showed. 

--CPI BELOW EXPECTATIONS

     Overall CPI posted a 0.1% increase, below both analyst and market 

expectations for a 0.2% gain, while the core CPI gain at 0.2% maintained 

the trend of accurate estimates. As a result, the data should generate 

little reaction, though they do indicate that consumer price inflation 

remains on an upward trend. 

     Unrounded, the month/month rise for overall CPI was +0.129%, while 

the unrounded increase for core CPI was +0.162%, both on the low side of 

the 0.2% expectations. 

--YEAR/YEAR PRICES MOVE HIGHER

     Overall, the data point to upward progress in consumer inflation, 

as the year/year rates strengthened further. 

     The year/year rate for overall CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.8% in May, 

hitting the highest rate since February 2012, while the year/year rate 

for core CPI rose to 2.3% from 2.2%, the strongest gain since January 

2017. 

--RENTS, MEDICAL, VEHICLES PRICES HIGHER

     The large owners' equivalent rents category rose 0.3%, while 

medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices rose 0.4% and used 

vehicles prices rose 0.7% to break the string of recent declines.

     There was some offset by declines in lodging away from home, which 

plunged 3.7%, and by apparel prices, which fell 0.9%.

     Energy prices fell by 0.3% for June after a 0.9% increase in May, 

with gasoline prices up 0.5%, but electricity prices down 1.4% and gas 

utilities prices down 1.7%. Energy prices were up 1.0% unadjusted, less 

than seasonal adjustment factors look for at the start of the summer 

when consumers are turning on their air conditioners and fueling their 

vehicles. CPI excluding only energy was up 0.2%. 

     Food prices were up 0.2% in June, with food at home prices and 

food away from home prices both up 0.2%.

--INITIAL CLAIMS FALL SHARPLY

     Also released on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 

to 214,000 in the July 7 week, compared with expectations for a 5,000 

decline to 226,000 from the originally reported 231,000 level in the 

previous week. That week's level was revised up slightly to 232,000.

     The claims data are viewed cautiously in early-July due to the 

typical time of auto plant shutdowns for retooling. Unadjusted claims 

rose by 32,948, but that was far short of the 54,180 rise seasonal 

factors expected. The current week's level was down from 284,329 in the 

same week a year earlier.

     The four-week moving average fell by 1,750 to 223,000 in the July 7 

week, and would fall further next week as the 218,000 level in the June 

16 week rolls out of the equation. However, volatility typical in 

early-July suggests a rebound in the headline figure next week. 

     Continuing claims fell by 3,000 to 1.739 million in the June 30 

week, but that small dip was not enough to prevent the four-week average 

from rising by 9,500 after 11 straight declines. Still, the average at 

1.729 million, is very close to the decade-low level set in the June 23 

week.

     Overall, the claims data suggest labor markets remain tight, even 

accounting for the early-July noise and the possibility of a rebound in 

the previous week. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **