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REPEAT:MNI INSIGHT: BOJ Sees Output Pickup; Watch Trade Impact 

By Hiroshi Inoue
     TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials expect an uptrend in industrial
production to continue on solid overseas and domestic demand, watching how it
will recover in August onward after a possible slump in July caused by the
severe rainfall that killed over 200 people and caused a temporary supply chain
breakdown, MNI understands.
     But at the same time, they are watching for any signs of U.S. trade
disputes hurting global demand. They are analyzing whether the recent drop in
durable goods production in Japan reflects slower capital investment in other
countries.
     BOJ officials see no need to change their latest assessment that industrial
production is on an uptrend despite a larger-than-expected drop in June factory
output.
     Industrial production fell 2.1% on month in June, coming in weaker than the
MNI median economist forecast of -0.4%, data released Tuesday by the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) showed.
     But production rebounded 1.2% on quarter in April-June for the first rise
in two quarters after -1.3% in January-March, indicating the economy was back on
a modest growth track after a temporary slump in Q1.
     --JULY DROP EXPECTED
     BOJ economists have received information that supply chain networks in
Japan are recovering gradually and that damage to business equipment in
southwestern regions is limited. However, massive flooding and mud slides caused
serious damage to vegetable and fruit farms.
     Industrial production is estimated by BOJ economists to have posted a third
straight monthly drop in July due to a major transportation breakdown and
wide-spread damage to social infrastructure in the disaster zone caused by
severe rainfall in the month.
     METI's survey shows industrial production is expected to rise 2.7% in July
and gain a further 3.8% in August.
     But adjusting the upward bias in output plans, METI forecast production
would rise just 0.2% on month in July. Based on this assumption and if September
output were flat, production would fall 0.1% on quarter in July-September, the
first drop in two quarters.
     BOJ economists noted that the government survey was based on responses by
July 10, immediately after the heavy rainfall, which means the survey didn't
reflect the full impact of the disaster.
     They are also paying attention to how U.S. trade rows will impact global
demand, and thus Japan's exports and production.
     --SOLID ELECTRONIC PARTS
     BOJ economists are encouraged by continued solid demand for electronic
parts and devices as well as cars and trucks.
     Production for electronic parts and devices rose 2.7% on month in June
following a 3.4% rise in May while that of transport equipment rose 0.2% in June
after falling 5.9% in the previous month.
     Production of transport equipment posted only a slight gain but its
shipments rose 5.6% in June following -9.0% in May. As a result, transport
equipment inventories fell 8.5% in June after rising 5.1% in May.
     --CAPITAL GOODS DROP
     On the downside, BOJ economists are keeping a close watch on production of
capital goods (excluding transport equipment), which fell 3.6% in June for the
second straight month-on-month decline after -1.1% in May, +1.8% in April, +1.4%
in March.
     They are examining whether overseas demand for capital goods excluding
vehicles, which are used for capital investment, have been affected by the
protectionist U.S. trade policy and retaliatory actions by China and other major
economies.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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