Reprieve For USD/Asia Pairs, Although Follow Through USD Selling Limited

Most USD/Asia pairs have moved off highs from yesterday, although there hasn't been a great deal of follow through in terms of USD weakness. The firmer tone to regional equities, aided by China calls to boost local consumption, have helped. Still to come is the BI decision (no change expected) and BSP (market close to split between +25/+50bps). Tomorrow, Thailand Q4 GDP prints, along with Singapore Jan trade figures.

• USD/CNH got close to 6.8500 in the first part of the session but now sits back at 6.8600/10. This is only slightly firmer for the session in CNH terms. The CNY fixing trend is edging closer to neutral, while local equities have rebounded, which has likely helped curbed upside momentum in the pair.
• 1 month USD/KRW got a to a low of 1278, but we now sit back closer to 1281/82, still higher in won terms for the session. Recent highs in the pair come in around the 1287.50 region. Onshore equities have rebounded, with offshore investors adding +$130mn back to local shares.
• For USD/SGD, the pair continues to be driven by the broader greenback trend. Bulls have faced resistance above the 50-Day EMA ($1.3361) yesterday, and the pair has ticked away from the level and last prints $1.3340/45 ~0.15% softer today. On the wires early tomorrow, we have Jan Export data. Non-oil Domestic Exports are estimated to have fallen 1.0% MoM in the Bloomberg survey (-21.9% Y/Y, versus -20.6% prior). Electronic Exports are also on the wires, there is no estimate, the prior read was -17.9%.
• USD/INR opened softer and is back sub 82.70 as the time of writing. The pair retreated from fresh monthly highs seen in yesterday's trading, just above 82.90. India's Jan Trade Balance was narrower than expectations however a $17.74bn deficit was still observed. The trade deficit continues to narrow from July 2022 extremes, which is in line with improvement in the Citi ToT proxy.
• USD/IDR is down around 0.15% so far today, last just under 15180. The pair remains well within recent ranges ahead of the BI decision later today. Recent selling interest has been evident on moves above 15200. The pair remains wedged between key EMA levels. The BI is widely expected to remain on hold today given recent BI commentary. BI will likely guard against a sharp weakening in IDR, given it continues to value the currency as undervalued (we have the 50 and 100 day EMAs siting higher at 15255 and near 15280 respectively).
• USD/PHP is down from early session highs near 55.40, currently back at 55.15/20 unchanged for the session. Coming up is the BSP decision, a hike is widely expected, although the market is close to split between a 25bps or 50bps move. We see risks as tilted more towards a 50bps hikes given known inflation outcomes in the Philippines and the shift in the US outlook over recent weeks.