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Retail sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • Retail sales is due at 7:00BST which will give a further update on the state of the consumer. This data follows a further fall in GfK consumer confidence data overnight where Joe Staton, GfK's Client Strategy Director, told MNI that GfK's latest survey shows the mood is now darker than in the early stages of the Covid pandemic, the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, and even the shock of the 2008 global financial crisis, with growing chatter "of a looming recession".
  • The inc fuel consensus print is -0.7%M/M / -4.5%Y/Y with the ex fuel figure expected at -0.9%M/M / -5.0%Y/Y.
  • As of yesterday's close, markets were pricing 50bp for August still despite yesterday's moves and retail sales in itself isn't going to make or stop a hike from the MPC, but we could see some two-way risk on a big surprise today.
  • As has been the case with other data recently, the reaction at 7:00BST might be muted with more follow through at 7:30BST when UK STIR markets open.
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