Retail Sales (Jan 2019) Preview - 0930GMT...>

UK DATA: Retail Sales (Jan 2019) Preview - 0930GMT 20/02/20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

- BBG median: 0.7%m/m; 0.6%y/y; Prev (Dec): -0.6%m/m, 0.9%y/y 

- Ex. Fuel: BBG: 0.8% m/m, 0.4% y/y; Prev (Dec): -0.8% m/m, 0.7% y/y

- In Jan mkts looking for a bounce to 0.7% on a m/m basis which would be the

highest since Jun after two consecutive months of decline. 

- Excl. fuel, sales fell by 0.8% in Dec and market analysts expect an uptick to

0.8% in Jan. 

- Y/Y sales are seen decelerating to 0.6% (down 0.3pp) incl. fuel while excl.

auto fuels sales are forecast to drop to 0.4% (down 0.3pp). 

- Dec's decline was mainly driven by falling sales of clothing and footwear as

well as sales in non-specialised stores 

- Fwd-looking survey evidence remains subdued with the BRC shop sales monitor

showing a deceleration of total sales to 0.4% y/y in Jan, with the report noting

that consumer demand remains weak and costs are increasing, resulting in tighter

margins for retailers.