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Richer, Little Changed After Retail Sales Data Beat

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are richer on the day (YM +7.0 & XM +6.0), and little changed after retail sales data for March exceeded expectations with an increase of 0.4% M/M (+0.2% est.). While retail sales recorded a third straight rise in March, a pull-back in spending on discretionary goods has seen monthly turnover remain at a similar level to six months ago (ABS). Food retailing has now recorded 13 consecutive monthly rises, largely driven by high food inflation.

  • Cash ACGBs are little changed after the data to be 6-7bp richer on the day with the AU/US 10-year yield differential +4bp at -4bp.
  • Swap rates are 5-6bp lower on the day with EFPs 2bp wider.
  • The bills strip remains flatter after the data with pricing +3 to +9.
  • RBA dated OIS is flat to 4bp softer after the data with November leading. A 13% chance of a 25bp rate hike in June is priced with terminal rate expectations at 3.93% (August).
  • RBA Kohler is scheduled to speak at the CEDA Conference (0555 BST).
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