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Risk Appetite/Option Interest Keeps EUR/USD Buoyed Above $1.1800

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Risk appetite through Monday's holiday thinned NY session(UST yields eased and equities edged higher) allowed EUR/USD to recover off its earlier posted low of $1.1738 to $1.1820, closing the day around $1.1812.
  • EUR/USD nudged up to $1.1822 in early Tokyo only to turn lower as USD demand emerged into the Tokyo fix, with some linking the strengthening in the USD to the rule in favour of using the reconciliation process to pass additional legislation in the Democrats spending and taxation infrastructure bill.
  • EUR/USD pulled back to $1.1800 (the area between $1.1800-05 holds the strikes of E1.9bln of option expiries for today's NY cut, E1.5bln of EUR puts) before meeting decent support, the rate then edging to $1.1810 ahead of the European open.
  • Support $1.1800, $1.1780(50% $1.1738-1.1822), $1.1770-58(61.8%-76.4%) ahead of $1.1738, stronger between $1.1704/1.1695.
  • Resistance $1.1822/28(intraday high/Mar25 high), $1.1847/53(50% $1.1990-1.1704/Mar24 high), $1.1881/87(61.8% $1.1990-1.1704/200-dma)
  • EZ Sentix Investor Confidence 0830GMT, EZ Unemployment at 0900GMT(median 8.1%).
  • A light US calendar, JOLTS Job Openings 1400GMT.
  • Focus this week on FOMC Minutes Wednesday. ECB Minutes Thursday with Fed Powell also appearing same day at an IMF panel on Global Economy.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD traded higher yesterday however short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme remains in place with technical indicators still highlighting a bearish outlook. Activity in March resulted in a break of support at 1.1836, Mar 9 low extending this year's bearish price sequence of lower and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1695 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 1.1828, a former bear channel base breached on Mar 8.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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