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Risk Aversion

FOREX

The greenback remained resilient, while risk assets were avoided after a drop in the lira over the weekend.

  • The lira plunged at the start to the week after Pres Erdogan fired CBRT chief Agbal and replaced him with a like-minded economist Sahap Kavcioglu, who shares the President's controversial views on monetary policy. Spot USD/TRY wiped out four months worth of losses in one swing, printing levels not seen since Agbal took the helm of the CBRT in early Nov 2020.
  • AUD lower on risk aversion, Australia's vaccination efforts are being slowed by torrential rain and flooding which is providing further headwinds.
  • NZD also under pressure, New Zealand's Westpac Consumer Confidence moderated to 105.2 in Q1 from 106.0 registered in the previous quarter.
  • JPY supported by risk aversion, by slightly worse off against the USD. Tokyo 2020 CEO Toshiro Muto confirmed that the Olympic Games will take place without foreign spectators. The decision on the participation of the Japanese audience will be taken in Apr.
  • PBOC fixed USD/CNY at 6.5191, in-line with sell side estimate, Offshore yuan is weaker, USD/CNH pushed higher by a stronger greenback while comments over the weekend from PBOC Governor Yi that the bank still has space to expand liquidity also helped weaken the yuan. The rate has moved in a narrow range since the open.
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