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Risk-On Ahead June Employment Data

US TSYS
Early skittishness gave way to steadily higher bond yields by Thu's close, 30YY topping 3.2032%. Early session swings unlikely related to session data: Trade Deficit slightly wider than expected (-$85.5B vs. -$84.7B exp), weekly claims slightly higher than expected at 235k vs. 230k, continuing claims +1.375M vs. 1.328M.
  • Early moves more likely associated to positioning ahead Friday's June employment report (268k est vs. 390k prior) while late session comments from StL Fed Bullard and Fed Gov Waller underscored recent pricing of another 75bp hike at the end of the month (Bullard), Waller sees recession fears as overblown.
  • Further curve inversion after the minutes keeps recession talk in the foreground while the FOMC admits inflation is job 1 and tightening will weaken the economy. Markets price in 75bp hike at the end of the month, but struggle with forward guidance: looking at rate cuts one year hence.
  • Strong stocks (SPX eminis currently trading +61.5 (1.6%) at 3909.75; DJIA +358.03 (1.15%) at 31394.56; Nasdaq +266.7 (2.3%) at 11628.23), underscored the late risk-on tone.
  • Decent pick-up in swappable corporate debt issuance ($10.6B total) generated two-way hedging/unwind flow across the curve
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