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Risk-On Ahead Political Risk Events

US TSYS SUMMARY

General risk-on as rates traded weaker vs. stronger equities Tuesday -- despite upcoming risk-events surrounding the Georgia state run-off (polls close 1900ET, election officials est winners likely annc'd early Wed), and Wednesday's electoral vote count in DC. Though the count may take some time due to expected objections from select Republicans, it's more the potentially violent protests in/around DC that have people on edge.

  • Better than expected data weighed on rates: Mfg PMI rose 3.2pt to 60.7 in Dec, beating expectations of a decline to 56.6. The Dec reading marks the highest level since Aug '18 and the increase was broad-based.
  • Second consecutive session decent if not heavy corporate debt issuance, near $25B (over $52B since Mon) generated additional hedging pressure in rates.
  • Yield curves bear steepened to multi-year highs, 5Y30Y topped 134.5 on the day, level not seen since late 2016.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 0.1211%, 5-Yr is up 2.2bps at 0.3718%, 10-Yr is up 3.3bps at 0.9465%, and 30-Yr is up 4.2bps at 1.6979%.
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