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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- USD/RUB trades -2.14% lower this morning as markets acclimate to the invasion launched early yesterday morning.
- The cross closed +5.21% higher after peaking at 88.267 (+8.78%) following the initial breakout gap higher. Global risk recovered on the back of a “buy the invasion” mentality with US stocks and tech specifically ending sharply higher, but the situation remains tense with Russian troops pushing to encircle Kyiv within the next 2-3 days.
- Fighting continued on the eastern and southern borders as Russian troops press to create a land bridge and facilitate troop landings via the Black Sea.
- The aerial assault is ongoing with ground forces yet to step in. At this point, the invasion should be mostly priced in, but an extensive Ukrainian pushback may result in a more costly endeavor for Russia with Putin seemingly intent on taking the whole of Ukraine, given Western sanctions have already been imposed.
- Western sanctions were extremely broad, hitting banks, defense & energy companies, tech exports, Duma members, top officials and Oligarchs in the broadest package of measures seen to date, but no consensus was found over SWIFT disconnection with Germany & the US pushing back on the idea.
- The focus now is on the development of the invasion and risks of an escalation with NATO as some analysts are concerned Putin will extend his campaign to other Ex-soviet states – but Putin has yet to make his intentions known.
- USD/RUB may trade within the breakout gap today (81.14-88.26), but the CBR has said its will use everything at its disposal to ensure RUB stability, which include a massive $650bn stock of international reserves.
- Nevertheless, we can expect more volatility in the cross today. Intraday Sup1: 82.634 (76.4% fib of breakout gap & yesterday’s low), Sup2: 81.14, Res1: 85.3183, Res2: 87.2215, Res3: 88.267
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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