RUSSIA-Talks To Continue, Potential Ceasefire Comes Into View

Advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mykhailo Podolyak, has stated that talks with Russian negotiators will continue into the evening in Turkey. This comes as both Russian and Ukrainian sides confirm substantial progress in talks that could facilitate a meeting between Presidents Zelensky and Putin. This would be a crucial step towards a ceasefire being reached in Ukraine.

• Earlier comments from Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin saying that Russia will "radically reduce" its military activities around Kyiv and Chernihiv stand as the clearest signal the the Russian assualt could be drawn down significantly depending on the outcome of talks.
• The establishment of independent states in the Donbas and the creation of a 'land bridge' to Crimea has long been the base-case view of MNI's Political Risk team. The initial full scale invasion of Ukraine followed by a Russian withdrawal to these positions could provide both Moscow and the West with a 'win'.
• For Russia, President Putin can argue that he has provided self-determination to the breakaway regions in the Donbas and protected the ethnic Russian minority in the region. The West will be able to argue that Putin's 'plan' to oust the Zelensky gov't and install a puppet regime in Kyiv has been foiled. For Ukraine the cessation of violence and continuity of gov't could be a reward enough to allow the loss of territory in the east.