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Free AccessSA Records First Quarterly Primary Surplus in Three Years
- This is a sign that the National Treasury's efforts to bring spending in line with revenue are tentatively succeeding - bolstered by bumper corporate profits due to the commodity supercycle.
- However, SA's poor track record of reform implementation and consistent budget frugality leave room for perpetual scepticim.
- Govt's primary balance swung to a surplus of 9.8 billion rand ($652 million), or 0.6% of GDP, in the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year, compared with a deficit of 2.2% of GDP in the previous three months
- A primary surplus, which excludes interest costs, suggests the state can extract resources from the economy necessary to service debt.
- In February, the Treasury projected a primary surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2024-25, targeted a positive balance of 0.3% of GDP in the long run and saw debt stabilizing at 88.9% of GDP in 2026 fiscal year.
- The medium-term budget scheduled for Nov. 4 is likely to show an improvement in these metrics, after changes to the way GDP is calculated showed the economy is bigger than previously estimated and with tax revenue overshooting estimates because of a windfall in mining profits
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.