GERMANY: Scholz Gov't To Fall In Confidence Vote ~1600CET

Later today the Bundestag will vote on a confidence motion in the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The vote will be called by the chancellor at around 1300CET (0700ET, 1200GMT), who will then deliver a 25-minute statement outlining his reasons for moving a confidence motion in his administration. This will be followed by two hours of debate among lawmakers, after which a vote will be held. The result is expected to be announced at around 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT). 

• The carefully orchestrated event will (almost certainly) see the government fall short of a majority. After this, Scholz will recommend the dissolution of the Bundestag to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The president has 21 days to call a snap federal election, but the 23 February has already been agreed as an acceptable date by all main parties. The minority Scholz government will remain in place in a caretaker capacity until the election.
• Unlike a confidence vote called by the opposition - so-called 'constructive' confidence votes, where an alternative chancellor candidate is required to win a majority to oust the incumbent - this will be the gov't calling a confidence motion in itself. Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) will back the gov't for the sake of appearances, but their coalition partners - the environmentalist Greens - will abstain. This means that even if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) backs the gov't in an attempt to cause political choose, the SPD-AfD group would still fall short of the majority threshold. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 3-Poll Moving Average