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Scotia: Eyeing Stronger GDP Print Than July Advance Implied

CANADA
  • Scotia see several indicators suggesting upside risk to early guidance that July GDP was tracing little change, with a simple regression indicating modest growth that they’ve tamped down to a 0.2% m/m SA gain.
  • Hours worked were mildly higher and so were other readings while proxies for service sector activity seemed buoyant.
  • One reason for tamping down the estimate is due to roughly estimating the impact of the BC port strike that would have temporarily weighed against growth. While Q2 was heavily distorted by wildfires, as well as strikes and labour turmoil in the Federal civil service and other sectors, July probably extended those shocks given the port strike and record rainfall.
  • Scotia warn not too read too much into recent economic weakness as solely or even primarily due to the impact of higher borrowing costs as the BOC has tended to do. We won’t have a better feel for how much of a role higher rates may be playing until the latest above shocks dissipate, and even then it may be difficult to arrive at such judgement since the country could be shaking off the shocks as a partial offset to lagging effects of rate hikes.
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