Scotiabank are bullish CAD into.......>

DOLLAR-CANADA: Scotiabank are bullish CAD into Thursday's speech from BoC Gov.

Poloz. They look for "a constructive message signalling optimism & a desire to

resume policy normalization in H219. Oil prices are recovering & the Q4 shock is

fading. Domestic rate exp. are remarkably muted & the odds of a near-term hike

are low. The Gov. may feel the need to give mkts a 'nudge' in order to even out

the probabilities & assist with the eventual adjustment to higher rates as the

BoC makes its way to neutral. BoC policymakers introduced a message of patience

in their Dec statement as a response to the Q4 oil price shock. The

communication was maintained in Jan as policymakers sought to manage the pace of

normalization according to developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing

market & global trade policy. The oil price shock appears to be fading as Brent

& WTI test fresh '19 highs & threaten key retracement levels drawn from the

Oct-Dec decline. The strength in the broader commodity complex is also

encouraging. Global central banks are delivering a message of patience as they

seek to foster reflation & trade-related concerns are diminishing as off'ls from

the U.S. & China accelerate the pace of negotiations into the Mar 1 'deadline'."