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Scotiabank Maintain Unchanged BanRep Forecast

COLOMBIA
  • As has been demonstrated on many occasions, the institutional framework in Colombia is robust, and thus the presidential team has continued to pursue and necessitate consensus. In the case of the Finance Ministry, the fiscal rule is a mandate established and monitored by an independent committee, which ensures transparency in fiscal accounts.
  • It is worth noting that newly appointed Bonilla will not participate in Friday’s Monetary Policy Meeting, he is expected to take office on May 2nd. In any case, BanRep has demonstrated being an independent institution focusing on the inflation-targeting mandate.
  • That said, for Friday's vote, Scotiabank’s call remains to favor rate stability, mainly due to macroeconomic reasons that point to economic activity slowing down and inflation expectations moderating.
  • However, the current political scenario presents a challenging environment for BanRep since risk premiums could increase. We highlight that Minister Bonilla, during Petro's presidential campaign, said that fiscal responsibility is a must for emerging markets, which should be of some reassurance.
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