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Scotiabank & TD On Upcoming BoC Surveys

CANADA
  • The BoC publishes its quarterly business and consumer surveys at 1530ET today.
  • Scotiabank will watch the “forward-looking measures of expectations for inflation, wage growth and house price growth” after Gov. Macklem has previously said the Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and wage costs.
  • The responses largely pre-date Omicron as they are gathered over Nov into early Dec, but if several measures of expectations indicate building pressures in wage and price signals "before omicron introduced further shocks to supply chains, then the BoC may be inclined to treat those gauges as fresher indicators”… “Further upward pressure on inflation expectations would risk spooking the BoC into believing they are becoming unmoored”.
  • TD note these are “one of the last datapoints ahead of the January BoC decision” [plus notably CPI on Wed]. If the surveys confirm “that pressures have continued to build, it could lead the BoC to revisit potential GDP ahead of the January MPR and open the door to Q1 rate hikes".
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