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ASIA FX: SEA FX Firmer Against USD Amid, But Recent Ranges Holding

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletAPACEmerging Market News

In SEA FX, the bias is mostly for weaker USD levels, although a good part of this is catch up to dollar weakness post onshore closes from Thursday. IDR is up almost 0.50%, MYR and THB around 0.40%. 

  • The USD softened amid a yield pull back, post the PPI detail on Thursday, whilst trends have steady so far today. An April start date for reciprocal tariffs is also seen as supporting the risk mood, as it gives times for negotiations between now and then. Regional equity trends are mixed so far today, with aggregate moves less than 1%.
  • USD/SGD is close to unchanged last near 1.3440. We are within striking distance of Jan lows around 1.3420. The 200-day EMA is further south close to 1.3410. Earlier data showed a slight downward revision to Q4 q/q growth, but overall 2024 growth was very strong.
  • Malaysian Q4 GDP revisions were slightly better, with growth at 5.0% for the year (but still negative q/q). USD/MYR is back sub 4.4400, but up from session lows.
  • USD/THB is back under 33.70, but still can't get back under 33.60 at this stage. USD/PHP was weaker in the first part of trade, getting to lows of 57.82 post yesterday's surprise BSP hold, but sits back in the 57.90/95 region in latest dealings. The BSP Governor stated earlier the central bank was still in an easing cycle.
  • USD/IDR is back under 16280, up 0.50% in IDR terms. However, the 1 month NDF is little change versus end NY levels on Thursday.  
  • After a volatile week, USD/INR is steadier today, last around 86.90. Focus will rest on the RBI's intervention strategy.  
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In SEA FX, the bias is mostly for weaker USD levels, although a good part of this is catch up to dollar weakness post onshore closes from Thursday. IDR is up almost 0.50%, MYR and THB around 0.40%. 

  • The USD softened amid a yield pull back, post the PPI detail on Thursday, whilst trends have steady so far today. An April start date for reciprocal tariffs is also seen as supporting the risk mood, as it gives times for negotiations between now and then. Regional equity trends are mixed so far today, with aggregate moves less than 1%.
  • USD/SGD is close to unchanged last near 1.3440. We are within striking distance of Jan lows around 1.3420. The 200-day EMA is further south close to 1.3410. Earlier data showed a slight downward revision to Q4 q/q growth, but overall 2024 growth was very strong.
  • Malaysian Q4 GDP revisions were slightly better, with growth at 5.0% for the year (but still negative q/q). USD/MYR is back sub 4.4400, but up from session lows.
  • USD/THB is back under 33.70, but still can't get back under 33.60 at this stage. USD/PHP was weaker in the first part of trade, getting to lows of 57.82 post yesterday's surprise BSP hold, but sits back in the 57.90/95 region in latest dealings. The BSP Governor stated earlier the central bank was still in an easing cycle.
  • USD/IDR is back under 16280, up 0.50% in IDR terms. However, the 1 month NDF is little change versus end NY levels on Thursday.  
  • After a volatile week, USD/INR is steadier today, last around 86.90. Focus will rest on the RBI's intervention strategy.