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Sell-Side Consensus For +150bp-500bp Hike; Morgan Stanley With Divergent Call

CBRT
  • All surveyed see 1w repo hike with a +150bp-575bp range; market/median consensus 475bp.
  • Morgan Stanley: +150bp, Natwest: +300bp, RenCap: +400bp or more, SEB: +450bp, Danske, GS & Unicredit: +475bp, JPM: +500bp.
  • All focus on reasserting CBRT credibility through 1w repo hike, moving back into real yield territory above 12-13% inflation expectations and offsetting average funding costs at 14.5%.
  • Morgan Stanley: Divergent call for +150bp hike, noting domestic inflation drivers, such as local currency loan growth and domestic demand growth, normalising which in itself calls for less aggressive action
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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