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Sell-Side Revise GDP Forecasts Following Activity Data

BRAZIL
  • Goldman Sachs have revised their 2021 GDP forecast to 4.5% from 4.1%
    • The head of LatAm Research cited the economy's stronger than expected performance in March, early activity indicators' strength for 2Q21 and further improvement in terms of trade.
    • Further progress on Covid vaccination front along with the gradual reopening of the economy should aide the recovery. Further boosted by renewed fiscal stimulus plus recovering consumer and business confidence.
    • They cite potential mitigating factors of rising interest rates, high inflation, lingering political noise and policy uncertainty.
  • Barclays also improved their 2021 GDP forecast to 4.3% from 3.2%.
    • They had expected a larger effect from the temporary suspension of emergency aid payments and renewed restrictions in March on Q1 activity.
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