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Sell-side views on this morning's GDP indicator data

SWEDEN
  • Nordea: "Today’s report paints a mixed picture of the start to the second quarter. While household consumption was suspiciously low, business production was solid despite continued supply issues in April... Our GDP forecast for this quarter of 1.1% q/q is not out of reach. However, longer out, we expect GDP growth to gradually lose steam and eventually stagnate."
  • SEB: "Production in the private sector has started the year weak, but indicators signal that we are still in an upward trend... In terms of GDP, the indicator shows that the Swedish economy started weak in 2022 and GDP decreased by -0.8%, and 3.0% YoY according to the final estimate. However, GDP growth in 2020 and 2022 was revised up by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, which indicates that GDP was closer to the trend than previously indicated. The historical GDP indicator will be adjusted for the revised GDP, which makes the April figure very uncertain."
  • Swedbank: "Monthly GDP decreased by 0.2% in April compared to March, when growth was surprisingly high. Assuming zero growth rate in May and July, the data indicates a quarterly growth in Q2 of about 0.2%. This is in line with our latest forecast of 0.3% in the second quarter... We believe the shift from goods to services consumption will continue. And pessimistic households with shrinking incomes will tighten their purse strings... Together with the larger than expected decline in the first quarter we now expect lower GDP growth this year compared to our April forecast. We forecast GDP growth in 2022 at 1.9%."
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