MNI BOE WATCH: Narrow Path To Aug Cut, Wary Messaging Likely

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Step Up Macroeconomic Policies - Politburo

MNI CNB WATCH: Fine-Tuning Set To Start, But 50Bps 'In Play'

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY51.03 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1364 Tues; -1.28% Y/Y

MNI:US MAY FHFA HPI SA +0.0% V +0.3% APR; +5.7% Y/Y

MNI: US REDBOOK: JUL STORE SALES +4.7% V YR AGO MO

German inflation: Slight upside to consensus - as our tracking expected

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Sell-Side Views on Tomorrow’s CPI Print

HUNGARY
Headline CPI is seen dropping 4ppt from +16.4% y/y in August to +12.4% in September, as per the median of a Bloomberg survey of analysts, with disinflation likely to be primarily driven by significant base effects. A sustained slowdown in inflation could facilitate the continuation of steady rate cuts by the NBH, though should inflation be more stubborn than expected, the NBH may be more likely to err on the side of caution with smaller rate cuts moving forward. Data will cross tomorrow morning at 0730BST/0830CET. See a summary of sell-side analyst views below:
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to fall to +12.2% y/y - largely on base effects but also reflecting a slowdown in underlying inflation dynamics. They expect the disinflation process to continue through the remainder of the year, with headline falling below +7% y/y in December. Furthermore, on the assumption that the HUF remains relatively stable, they expect the ongoing disinflation process to allow the NBH to continue its cutting cycle.
  • UniCredit expect consumer prices to increase by +0.3% m/m in September, bringing annual inflation to +12.2%. They say the bulk of such a decline in annual inflation is likely to have been the result of sizable disinflationary base effects in utility prices and expect that annual inflation will ease to below +8% by December, implying positive real rates from October onward.
  • Citi Economics expects a deceleration towards +12.2% y/y. If inflation remains above +13%, it may cause the NBH to be more cautious with rate cuts and decrease the size, they say. For now, their economists expect a 75bp cut for October.
  • ING see another big reduction in the general price pressure. They say the headline figure for September will fall by 4ppts on the back of an energy-related base effect, while the monthly repricing will be quite strong mainly due to fuel prices. Core inflation will also continue its trend-like decline.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.