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Sell-Side Views on Tomorrow’s CPI Print

HUNGARY
Headline CPI is seen dropping 4ppt from +16.4% y/y in August to +12.4% in September, as per the median of a Bloomberg survey of analysts, with disinflation likely to be primarily driven by significant base effects. A sustained slowdown in inflation could facilitate the continuation of steady rate cuts by the NBH, though should inflation be more stubborn than expected, the NBH may be more likely to err on the side of caution with smaller rate cuts moving forward. Data will cross tomorrow morning at 0730BST/0830CET. See a summary of sell-side analyst views below:
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to fall to +12.2% y/y - largely on base effects but also reflecting a slowdown in underlying inflation dynamics. They expect the disinflation process to continue through the remainder of the year, with headline falling below +7% y/y in December. Furthermore, on the assumption that the HUF remains relatively stable, they expect the ongoing disinflation process to allow the NBH to continue its cutting cycle.
  • UniCredit expect consumer prices to increase by +0.3% m/m in September, bringing annual inflation to +12.2%. They say the bulk of such a decline in annual inflation is likely to have been the result of sizable disinflationary base effects in utility prices and expect that annual inflation will ease to below +8% by December, implying positive real rates from October onward.
  • Citi Economics expects a deceleration towards +12.2% y/y. If inflation remains above +13%, it may cause the NBH to be more cautious with rate cuts and decrease the size, they say. For now, their economists expect a 75bp cut for October.
  • ING see another big reduction in the general price pressure. They say the headline figure for September will fall by 4ppts on the back of an energy-related base effect, while the monthly repricing will be quite strong mainly due to fuel prices. Core inflation will also continue its trend-like decline.
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