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Sentiment Sours, Projected Rate Cuts Moderate

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are holding near lows after the bell, curves flatter, extending inversion with the short end underperforming.
  • There were no obvious headline or Block-driven trigger as projected rate cuts continue to climb off Thursday's lows given the rise in UofM's long term inflation expectations and cooling sentiment.
  • Even Chicago Fed Goolsbee's comment on PBS over decelerating inflation failed to elicit much of a lasting reaction (though equities are rebounding at the moment: SPX Eminis -7.0 at 4137.0 vs. 4112.25 low).
  • Yesterday saw three consecutive 25bp cuts projected to start in September.
  • At the moment, however, September cumulative -20.9bp at 4.858%, November cumulative -44.1bp at 4.625%, Dec'23 cumulative -68.5bp at 4.381%, while Jan'24 cumulative is at -91.4bp (vs. 110.2bp Thu) at 4.153%. Fed Terminal currently at 5.08% in Jun'23 and Jul'23.
  • White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has told reporters that President Biden will meet with the four leaders of Congress "early next week" for a second round of talks on the debt limit, but declined to provide a specific date. Jean-Pierre: "When we have a date, certainly we will share that will all of you," adding that "productive talks" have been ongoing between negotiators representing all parties and will continue over the weekend.
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