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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CEE
- The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) maintained its hawkish stance in today's meeting and raised its repo rate by 50bps to 2%, above analysts predictions (unchanged) but in line with our expectations.
- Economic data showed earlier this morning that Serbian inflation accelerated to 9.6% in April (vs. 9.5% exp.), its highest level since June 2013, up from 9.1% the previous month.
- It is the second time that the NBS is raising its benchmark rate (NBS proceeded with a first 50bps in April) as inflationary pressures continue to accelerate in the CEE region.
- Prior the Ukraine war, it is likely that Serbia had been partly relying on its CEE peers' 'effort' (NBP, CNB and NBH), hoping that the gradual decline in inflation in H2 2022 will also have an impact on the domestic inflation.
- In addition, as the Serbian Dinar (RSD) seems pegged to the EUR at 117.60, the NBS may mirror the ECB policy outlook in order to avoid currency interventions as rising interest rate differential will drive RSD higher (vs. Euro).
- To the exception of Bulgaria, all central banks in the CEE region have now entered a tightening cycle (chart below).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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