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Westpac: Will Omicron See A New Trading Range Established?

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  • Repo rate forecast: 0% to Q1-24, 0.06% in Q2-24, 0.12% in Q3-24, Q4-24 to 0.19% in Q4-24. (Note that it was 0% to Q3-24 previously).
  • Small hawkish tilt given the increase to the Q2-24/Q3-24 numbers and Q4-24 number also a little higher than exp (but basically pricing in one hike).
  • SEK37bln of QE reinvestments in Q1 (SEK35-38bln expected so in line).
  • More govvies than expected (SEK12bln - had been expected SEK8-10bln).
  • Munis at SEK12bln
  • Covereds at SEK12bln
  • Corps at SEK1bln
  • SWTB stock maintained at SEK20bln.
  • This decision is between our base and bull case and EURSEK is therefore seeing some downside pressure moving below 10.20.