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Small Business Price Plans Below 3% For First Time Since Spring 2021

CANADA DATA
  • The CFIB small business barometer increased to 49.0 in January from an upward revised 47.3.
  • It’s the second monthly increase and takes it to its highest since August, but is still low by post-pandemic standards and compares with the 2018-19 average of 59.2.
  • We focus more on the future price and wage plans, which saw mixed latest developments.
  • Price plans pushed two tenths lower to 2.8%, the first time below the BoC’s upper band since spring 2021. This survey doesn't have the same weight as the BoC's BOS but the continued moderation is nevertheless of note with the BoC firmly focus on persistence in underlying inflation.
  • Wage plans increased two tenths back to 2.7% and have mostly plateaued in 2H23. There is a level difference here as wage plans peaked at 3.4% in Jul’22, never touching the realized 4-5% wage growth seen since mid-2022 in the broader labour force survey.

Source: CFIB

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